Shares have fallen

Moderna (MRNA) shares have lost most of their growth since the start of 2021, last week's financial report was significantly worse than market analysts' forecasts and confirmed the fears of many investors.

Moderna (MRNA)'s share price fell sharply by 34.7% following the release of its Q3 2021 financial report, worsening the momentum of recent months.

Moderna shares have fallen 53.4% from their August 9 high, but their price is still more than 100% higher than at the start of 2021.

Reasons for the stock's decline

A number of factors contributed to Moderna's share fall. Given that Moderna Spikevax vaccine from Covid-19 is the company's only product, it is heavily dependent on its sales. This has investors worried amid competitive pressure from Pfizer (PFE) and other manufacturers of coronavirus vaccines. The emergence of effective anti-COVID-19 tablets from Merck (MRK) and Pfizer has also been reflected in a decline in the shares of many vaccine manufacturers.

The latest financial report was a disappointment, as was the news that Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for children will be approved later than Pfizer's similar vaccine for children. Moderna Chief Medical Officer Dr Paul Burton said on Thursday that recent studies of the COVID-19 Spikevax vaccine showed a higher risk of myocarditis (a rare inflammation of the heart) in men under the age of 30 than the Pfizer vaccine. Data from France on men aged 12 to 29 showed that Moderna vaccine had 13.3 cases of myocarditis per 100,000 compared to 2.7 cases per 100,000 for the Pfizer vaccine.

On 4 November, Moderna reported disappointing sales and profit figures and lowered its annual sales forecast for its vaccines. All this on the back of Pfizer's excellent quarterly results and the competitor's announcement that Pfizer's market share of Covid-19 vaccines in the US is now 75%, down from 56% in April.

Moderna reported Q3 earnings of $7.70 per share, well below analysts' forecast of $9.05. Total revenues were $5bn, down as much as $1.2bn.

Moderna expects sales this year to be between $15 billion and $18 billion, down from a previous estimate of $20 billion. The company attributed the lower forecast to some shipments being pushed back to early 2022, as well as "prioritizing shipments to low-income countries"

Moderna said it had signed agreements to sell its Covid-19 vaccines worth $17bn in 2022 and said it expected sales in the commercial market to rise to $2bn next autumn.