Eurozone Escapes Recession
The euro stabilized on Tuesday following the release of data indicating that the eurozone narrowly avoided a technical recession in the fourth quarter. Conversely, the U.S. dollar experienced a slight decline as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision scheduled for later in the week.
Gross domestic product (GDP) across the 20 eurozone countries remained stagnant in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months. Notably, Spain and Portugal demonstrated robust growth, while Italy experienced a modest uptick. However, the German economy contracted in the final months of 2023.
Despite the euro's marginal increase of 0.14% to $1.0846 against the dollar, prevailing expectations suggest a stronger outlook for the U.S. economy compared to the eurozone. Consequently, investors have fully factored in an anticipated rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in April.
Chief Market Analyst at Scope Markets, Joshua Mahony, remarked, "For the ECB, today's figure eases the pressure somewhat, but it is clear that the so-called soft landing being pursued by ECB President Christine Lagarde has been somewhat softer than many would have liked."
With the Federal Reserve poised to maintain interest rates, market attention remains fixated on the tone set by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the upcoming press conference. Any indications of future rate adjustments will be closely scrutinized.
Michael Pfister, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, noted, "After Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish comments at the press conference following the last meeting, market participants are likely to be looking for more precise information on the timing of the first rate cut."
Markets eye potential rate adjustments with U.S. job openings data. Sterling dips ahead of Bank of England meeting, while dollar slips against yen.
Analysts expect the dollar-yen rate to be shaped by Fed expectations, especially as Japan considers policy changes in Q2. Japan's jobless rate dropped to 2.4% in December, below forecasts, potentially impacting yen sentiment alongside upcoming wage data in Q2.
