Political standoff over debt limit

The current political standoff over the debt limit has experts warning of severe turbulence in the financial markets. This article will explore the potential consequences of a failure to reach an agreement, including rising yields on Treasury bonds and a potential default. It will also analyze the positions of key players in the negotiation and assess the likelihood of a resolution.

Potential Consequences

The spike in yields on Treasury bonds maturing next month suggests that investors are already anticipating the possibility of a failure to reach an agreement. Without a short-term extension of the debt limit, the US would pass the "X-date" and face major turmoil in the markets. The downgrade of the nation's credit rating in the 2011 debt-limit standoff is a cautionary tale that history may repeat itself.

Positions of Key Players

President Biden will meet with congressional leaders to discuss how to avoid a default, but little progress is expected. Republicans are demanding substantive spending and budget reforms in exchange for a debt-ceiling increase, while Democrats are insisting on a clean debt-ceiling increase. There is growing pessimism that political leaders will negotiate a long-term deal by early June, the deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Likelihood of Resolution

Former Senator Judd Gregg warns that there is a better-than-50-percent chance of default, and that the potential consequences are dire. Gregg suggests that the lack of leadership to solve the problem is the bottom line. However, a senior Senate Democratic aide predicts that a spike in market volatility will pressure Republicans into backing off their demands. Meanwhile, Senator John Cornyn emphasizes the need to calm jittery banks in the face of uncertainty.

Conclusion

The impending debt ceiling crisis threatens to create turmoil in the financial markets. It is imperative that political leaders find a way to reach an agreement before it is too late. The stakes are high, and failure to act could have disastrous consequences.